The Old Joel on Software Forum: Part 4 (of 5)

Google IPO

Anybody planning on getting in on it? With the "Auction Process" do you think it is easier? What are your thoughts?

Anon
Thursday, April 29, 2004

"""Anybody planning on getting in on it?"""

Would've like to several years ago, but not now.

Thursday, April 29, 2004

I will predict the first 2 days price/share graph looks like an upside down fish hook.

Uncle Jesse
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Im sure a few people here have brokerage accounts large enough to get in at the offering or close to the opening price but unless you have that type of leverage or are an employee of Google, good luck....

apw
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Anyone can get in on it.
They are using a reverse-auction process (dutch auction). Shares will go to those willing to pay the most per share.

mystified
Thursday, April 29, 2004

I thought they had decided against the dutch auction(?)

Anon-y-mous Cow-ard
Thursday, April 29, 2004

They have cash on hand of 450 million, why do they need to raise more money? You can't tell me that if they really *needed* more money to expand, they couldn't find it through more conventional channels.

Companies go public so founders can cash out. Google is at its peak now and the founders want to maximize *their* profit, if they wait they may fall prey to Microsoft and changing market conditions.

Google has no lock in with any of its products, be it searching or targetted advertising. They have no way of muscling out competition and they have a 500 pound gorilla breathing down their neck. A 500 pound gorilla with a history of competiting unfairly.

They are not the clear technical leader anymore, Yahoo is equal in searching and doesn't return nearly as much spam. The same sort of comments in defense of Google match the same comments surrounding Netscape prior to their demise.
Competitors WILL come on the scene with equal if not superior technology and WILL take Googles market share.

Microsoft can attack Google on two fronts. The desktop and through its development tools. Google may well only be a mouseclick away, but you can bet that Microsoft will be pushing you to its search engine at every possible opportunity. Once a critical mass of people realize their search is better they'll switch, besides it is easier to 'go with the flow' than actively seek out Google. It's the same manner in which IE blew Netscape away. Netscape was the first thing people installed, but IE kept getting in the way, eventually people discovered IE was better and stopped installing Netscape.

Microsoft also has strong leverage with developers should they release tools or an API to improve indexing of their sites for web searching - from Microsoft search of course. Further, through technologies such a xaml Microsoft is looking to usurp the very means in which content is delivered on the Internet. In five years people will be building sites in xaml, not html and when that happens Microsoft can fine tune their technology to take advantage of that, while Google will have to continue the equivelent of 'screen scraping'.

There is no doubt Microsoft see Google as the competive threat of this decade, you can bet they'll be using every dirty trick to kill them.

That is why Google is going public, to pull in the suckers before its too late to cash out.

netscape redux
Thursday, April 29, 2004

I may be wrong, but I thought I remembered reading about a rule where private companies with more than 500 shareholders and more than 10 million in revenue have to do much of the same paperwork that a public company has to do. Since Google has more than 500 employees, each of which owns some stock, and they have more than 10 million in revenue, they fall under this rule.

So since they have to do all the paperwork anyway, maybe they're just deciding to go all the way and IPO.

Just a speculation, all of this is IIRC....

Michael Kale
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Here we go:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/aptech_story.asp?category=1700&slug=Taking%20Google%20Public&searchdiff=3&searchpagefrom=1

About half-way down, they mention that, and speculate that Google recently triggered this rule. Who knows if this motivated them to IPO or not, but it's a possibility.

Michael Kale
Thursday, April 29, 2004

"Companies go public so founders can cash out. Google is at its peak now and the founders want to maximize *their* profit, if they wait they may fall prey to Microsoft and changing market conditions. "

interesting, I dont agree with the idea of MS taking them down (see my earlier post on the related thread) but overall thats how I read this IPO as well.
They dont need the money, and theres not many places they can go from here...the 'online operating system' thing is a geeks dream, but I cant see many ways to make it work practically or make money from it.

FullNameRequired
Thursday, April 29, 2004

It sounds reasonable to me that Gogle will want to IPO so the founders can "cash out." On the other hand, all this talk of an upcoming battle with Microsoft makes me think... Hey a few billion on hand won't hurt in the coming "Search Engine Wars."

www.MarkTAW.com
Thursday, April 29, 2004

The "Search Engine Wars" sounds like the "Pentagon Wars" ..hope it is as entertaining as that movie!

Prakash S
Thursday, April 29, 2004

I second the question about what Google is planning to do with the money it raises. It seems to have more than enough to cover operating expenses along with the gradual expansions it's been doing. (We'll know for sure once it releases its financials.)

There's no benefit for the company of doing a massive stock offering, public or otherwise, if the money raised just sits in the bank. (Benefit to the founders and early investors, yes.)

Robert Jacobson
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Google's crossed the threshold that means it has to report earnings to the SEC. Basically their figures are about to become public anyway, so that's one disadvantage gone. They're not talking about selling all the company, just a small enough portion to raise capital.

I guess they figure that it can't hurt to have the money, they have to disclose everything anyway, why not list and make your employees overnight quadrazillionaires. Only time will tell how this plays out.

Koz
Thursday, April 29, 2004

>> [...] they have a 500 pound gorilla breathing down their neck

I thought 800-pound gorillas were the norm. You must have gotten a defective gorilla; may I suggest that you return it and demand a refund.

Oren
Friday, April 30, 2004

"In five years people will be building sites in xaml, not html and when that happens Microsoft can fine tune their technology to take advantage of that, while Google will have to continue the equivelent of 'screen scraping'."

My god -- check the power level on your Microdroid implant. Your rantings, and complete ignorance to Microsoft's failure at imposing industry standards, are so extreme that it's almost unbelievable.

Dennis Forbes
Friday, April 30, 2004