The Old Joel on Software Forum: Part 4 (of 5)

"The Apprentice" (spoilers)

LOL! Troy chose Bill to come to his team, eschewing Amy for obvious reasons.

However, Amy is the person that came up with the winning strategy last week, so it may have been cutting off his nose to spite his face. Instead, he picked a very contentious choice...

Bravo on team Protege for using the trip to Strategerize - they're learning. Bill specifically nailed that this game would be won on quality, not quantity; meanwhile Versacorp was focusing on pulling in people that would drop five or ten dollars each.

I'd love to see Amy and Katrina in a debate about using sex to sell - they both seem to use it when they want and put down other women for doing the same thing.

I wonder if Bill's gonna get some heat over the "hookers" comment.

Amy: "Bill is my toughest competition" while Nick was sitting there. [snicker]

Katrina: "I have not been given the opportunity to lead." Uh, missy? You don't get opportunities handed to you. You have to seize the reins.

I'm foggy on why Trumpster put so much credit into each the teams picking her; then we heard Trump and Carolyn complimenting Amy on her past performance. Can someone referesh my memory - what has Amy done, with the exception of the airline advertising? He made it sound like she's always been a player?

Interesting analysis about "why would you choose the tougher competition to stick around?"

Two episodes left until the finale? So three people going into the final two-hour episode on tax day.

Philo

Philo
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Philo,

How can you forget that Amy came up with idea of selling adverts for salad cream on the rickshaws. They mentioned that at the top of the show.

PBS Fund-drive freeloader
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Ack! You're right. I'll withdraw that comment then.

I wonder if we're going to end up with Troy vs. Amy.

Philo

Philo
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Three episodes to go and only one woman is left!

Imo, with all the free promotion he is receiving, Mr. Trump should be paying NBC!

I don't agree with Trump that Amy's $300 rent-a-car idea was simply terrible. The reason I say this is because if it truly was as bad as Trump said it was then Kuwame's team should have won by larger margin than they did. While Amy's team lost, they did get over 300 more gamblers to sign up for their contest and they only lost by $20,000 or so (I think). Troy's idea to use a lottery wheel and give away $1,000 was very good, but what seems to have saved Kuwame's team was Bill's idea to negotiate with the casino for sole access to the VIP sign-in desk. If Kuwame's team made any of these high-rollers stand in line with everyone else then they did a very stupid thing and perhaps this why the contest was as close as it turned out to be? Finally, while the idea of using a tiger to attract gamblers didn't turn out like Kuwame's team hoped it would, I loved the quip that came from the ten year old kid during negotiations.

Philo wrote, "Interesting analysis about "why would you choose the tougher competition to stick around?""

Yup, but Amy handled that question very well imo.

One Programmer's Opinion
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Whatever. Katrina was the last piece of major eye candy on the show. Now that she's gone, a major reason to watch The Apprentice just vanished.

Sexist
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Love the ten year old...

"Let me give you a piece of advice - stop selling when it's already been sold."

LOL !

Apprentice Watcher
Thursday, March 25, 2004

Amy had other ideas besides the advertisements, and she's also been a very strong negotiator and closer of deals for nearly every group and task she's been in.

But I think complacency, the loss of Bill, the distraction of Nick, and the "third wheel" effect on Katrina led to their loss this time. I think in previous games, Amy and Bill played well off of one another, motivated by Bill's seriousness and drive. With him gone, everybody just slacked off and they had none of the planning-time intensity they had in previous games, and their resulting plan showed it.

Actually, it has been rather interesting to see the strong correlation between strength of preparation and strength of results in the games so far.

Phillip J. Eby
Thursday, March 25, 2004

I'll echo what Phillip said about Amy. Also, I think she was the most well prepared of any of the leaders going into the boardroom. She was also deceitful. The car rental idea was hers, and I think she knew it but kept mum.

What's going to happen to Bill?

The Amy <--> Nick and Troy <--> Kwame bonds are pretty tight. He's the fifth wheel, so it will be interesting to see if he'll be hung out to dry based on relationships alone.

Katrina is a just a whiner. Every other person talked up their strengths and the "Apprentice experience" in the cab. All she could do is harp on Amy and Nick. Rrrreeoow!

Nick
Friday, March 26, 2004

What are people's picks?

Final Three: Troy, Amy, Bill
Winner: Troy

Cybersuraa
Friday, March 26, 2004

Yep, I agree.

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

"I'm foggy on why Trumpster put so much credit into each the teams picking her;"

Her teammates (and to an extent her opponents) are in contact with her 24-7, while Trump only gets to see a couple hours a week of each competitor on video or in person. If the others who interact closely with her are willing to give her so much praise, potentially at their own expense, you better believe Trump will notice.

T. Norman
Friday, March 26, 2004

Is it just me or has this forum become incredibly quiet of late?

Possibly my imagination, but doesn't this particularly topic usually hit about 50 posts by now?

Aussie Chick
Friday, March 26, 2004

This is another case of the side-person shining. I think there's a certain pressure to being leader that gives you tunnel vision. It's hard to be creative when the pressure's on. Last week it was Amy to Bill's leadership, this week it's Bill & Troy to Kwame's. Maybe Amy isn't good at getting her people motivated properly.

Katrina was dismissed again none of her ideas were given any creedence, and Nick is too "intimidated" to be of any use. Choosing Bill, whether they knew it or not, really is what sealed the deal for them, and in these past few weeks Bill & Amy have really shined. Well, except today.

Both times Bill is the guy who took the idea someone else came up with (advertising, the wheel) and turned it into a home run. Amy had a great idea yesterday, but I think really needed someone like Bill this week to take what she threw out there and give her some feedback on whether or not it was a good idea. Katrina didn't, and Nick certainly didn't. I wonder where Nick, mister "I dominate copier sales in California" was during the negotiations with the Chrysler dealership.

Amy prepared for the boardroom in much the same way as Omarosa, only did it digitally rather than by ranting and raving all around the apartment. Straightening out all your thoughts before you go in is a great idea, and very much along the line of what you should do when preparing for an interview. I think she handled herself very well, she didn't loes her composure, and stuck to her story.

While the observation that eliminating Nick now would mean less competition in the future was astute, it also means you have to go toe to toe with him today, a day when nobody did very well. Nick's been a much stronger performer than Katrina overall, and has been in the boardroom before and survived. She made a smart choice in choosing Katrina today. Amy side stepped the whole issue by claiming she chose in Trump's best interest, not her own.

Now that I think of it, The Apprentice does sound like The Prince, similar in sound and meaning.

Another "I'm focusing on your business, Mr. Trump" moment from Amy: In the casino "I don't want people gawking at a tiger, I want them on the casino floor. Where would you want them?" Do you think Nick & Amy should get the "couple with the most brown nosing potential" award?

What I don't understand is what this did to increase business in the casino. This was a totally contrived competition. All of these people were already customers, as evidenced by how they kept track - the existing cards each person had to swipe. It's just a matter of who can grab the most attention, really. Nobody generated any money for the casino. This means any real idea they could have to bring business in wouldn't net them any points in the competition. Heck, if the swiping machine were portable, they could just go around to people asking them to sign up for their contest while they were on the floor already gambling.

With Katrina gone, it's 5 strong players. Kwame is still a bit of a question mark in my mind, but it's going to get very tough. There really isn't anyone you can bring in to the boardroom that's an obvious fire.

My prediction is Nick & Amy will fail next week. They just don't balance each other out, and they don't have the follow through. It will be half finished ideas followed by half assed execution. Then no choosing who goes in to the boardroom, they both do, and based on his track record of being in the boardroom so many times, Nick will get fired.

Then Amy will choose Bill for her team, and they'll slaughter Troy & Kwame. If Trump says something about them giving Bill too much power, all she has to do is say she wants to win, and Bill is the best of the *men* standing. In the boardroom, Kwame will go. Amy, Bill & Troy in the final episode.

Finally. Why did Trump care that Amy brought Katrina in, what was that remark about Katrina being the only other woman, so they should be trying to take down the men now? It made no real sense to me.

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

> Possibly my imagination, but doesn't this particularly topic usually hit about 50 posts by now? <

Because so much has already been said. Both by the "I hate Reality TV" crowd and character assessment from various board members.

OH, and did anyone see the commercial for the new Restaurant? I'm stoked.

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

> "Amy had a great idea yesterday"

last week

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

> > "Amy had a great idea yesterday"

> last week

Hmm. Maybe I meant yesterday. Either way, my point stands... Amy needs someone who can really assess the merit of her ideas properly, and Bill is the only one with the business sense & experience to do it.

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

"why would you choose the tougher competition to stick around?"

I see a problem with the Apprentice, that is not as true with other's like survivor, etc. In the Apprentice, Donald Trump is picking someone to run one of his companies (this could be a show piece, but let's just say it's not) Would Trump really allow a "weak" player to win?

This is the point I think they were trying to get across. Take a power player into the board room and you have increase _your_ risk of getting fired. At some point those bonds will be broken, and probably in the ugliest of ways, that will seem like betrayal.

On Survivor, everyone tries to get the weakest players off first, those that cannot help "me" to the next level. Once the teams are trimmed of the weak, then the stongest need to go. (Like when the voted off the guy with survival skills).

Anonanonanon
Friday, March 26, 2004

"Instead, he picked a very contentious choice"

Ummm, why? I think Bill is the best candidate. Amy is close though. If I had to bet I'd guess it comes down to those two.

Friday, March 26, 2004

Catrina and Bill: Whats the point in thinking how they feel about the other person ... Catrina lost because she was cribbing from last few episodes, rather than being agressive in leading and presenting ideas. Bill is a smart and a good guy, needs to lead next time, he should stop cribbing about how he and Troy are different, focus on the game.

Troy and Kwame: These guys are always playing the game, working on the problem, regardless of how good or bad their ideas are they are the players, they focus on game ... so far I haven't seem cribbing about other candidates. Thats their strength ... Troy is a perfect example of balanced aggression, guy is always working on ideas ... looking for that "spark of genius". I would hire him anyday.

Amy: Very sharp, so far she has made big and small contributions in almost every game, she is another person who focuses on the game rather than people playing it. As someone has already said here ... she was the most prepared person going to boardroom, eventhough it was her first time. She sincerely prepared for it previous night before going to bed.

Final?

I say Bill vs. Troy vs. Amy. (That if Bill proves himself one more time in next episode, I think he will.)

Raju Patel
Friday, March 26, 2004

I said Bill was contentious because immediately after he was picked we got a shot of him saying "I don't like Troy's style"

I didn't mean contentious in general - just that he would create friction in the group.

BTW, next time Kwame's in the boardroom, I think he's gone. To some degree he's just been riding Troy's coattails up until now...

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

Yaawwwnnnn!!!

yawn
Friday, March 26, 2004

Booooorrrrring.

There's no one left to despise.

Friday, March 26, 2004

No one left to despise? What about Nick?!

Phillip J. Eby
Friday, March 26, 2004

How much these candidates get paid for apeearing in this show? Any ideas?

Raju Patel
Friday, March 26, 2004

They better be making good money for looking SO stupid on TV.

The last thing we needed was people flirting, boyfriend-girlfriend crap... And now we have that too. Now it is officially MTV's RealWorld with older boys and gals, and a rich dude who needs some *real* hair and a mirror.

yawn
Friday, March 26, 2004

Another good performance by Troy. Bill continues to be a whiner: complaining that he and Troy don't mesh, complaining that both Kwame and Troy went to the show. Basically complaining whenever things don't go exactly his way. Not good leadership material.

The standings (in order):
Troy - good move calling the carpenter & getting the wheel
Amy - took a bit of a hit, lost as a PM, plus the $300 Crossfire rental idea was terrible, had problems working with Katrina
Kwame - leaps ahead of Bill because of his win as PM
Bill - will get booted if his team loses next week, poor attitude
Nick - Only way to save himself is with a big victory as PM next week, otherwise it's time to go dominate the copier sales market, even his girlfriend said he wasn't the best man remaining. Ouch.

Best moment: the 10 year old kid.

The Ronald
Friday, March 26, 2004

While there may be no salary for appearing on the show, they likely get paid for appearing on TV. I believe there is a rule something like, "if you appear on tv, you don't need to get paid, but if you speak you must get paid at least a certain amount per ..." The people who did the Apple commercials a year ago were not paid for their filming, but were paid each time their commercial ran.

---

Regarding the episode, no one thought big enough, but then again the structuring of the competition was rather poor. "Tomorrow, everyone who has their card swiped by you will count to your total, for that day". There's no time to fly in a big spender or do much market research. The best one can do in that situation is to get everyone who is in the casino to sign up with them, and to market outside of the casino to passers by.

I'm also a bit surprised that Bill had to stand outside of the VIP check-in all day, I wonder why he couldn't get the check-in staff to inform the guests of the event - and hopefully they had an express line for the VIPs.

Lou
Friday, March 26, 2004

How embarrassing it must be, if one has any grasp of mathematics and probability, to be recognized as a VIP by a casino. I always find it fascinating when people proudly boast about being comped, as if feeding the profits of a casino was a noteworthy cause. As an aside, how did expenditures play into this challenge? For instance while Kwame's team made more money, they also spent $1000 that the other team didn't, and given that their gross take was only something like $30,000 more, I wonder how that equates into casino profits.

"They better be making good money for looking SO stupid on TV."

One thing that `reality TV' brings out is how unrealistic of a self-image some people appear to have -- what makes these people "SO stupid"? They seem like normal, intelligent people, with the foibles of humanity. I would love to see a "Armchair Critic" edition with some of the outspoken critics with a bloated sense of self doing their best and failing miserably.

.
Friday, March 26, 2004

I also wish they would tell us more about the cost side of the game. But spending 1k to make 30k is a good move.

Trump told Amy they should have given away the car (not a rental). That's some serious cost -- and they would have done it (of course) if cost was not a factor -- so I wonder what the factor is.

I was wondering the same thing during the apt. rental episode. Katrina must have paid something to the contractors -- did that get accounted for?

Lou Franco
Friday, March 26, 2004

>>Kwame - leaps ahead of Bill because of his win as PM
>>Bill - will get booted if his team loses next week, poor attitude

Are you kidding me? Bill has made a very strong showing the last few contests. Locking down the VIP sign-in desk won the event hands down. And he was smart to stand there all day, instead of getting some floozy or delegating it to the check-in clerk.

Previously, he took Amy's rickshaw advertising idea and capped it off with the idea of focusing on businesses they had worked with in previous episodes. If they had relied on cold-calling, they might have floundered.

He didn't do too much on the art episode, but in the Trump water one he was the only star on the losing team. Ereka had tried to push the "Trump buzz" and got flat responses. Bill whipped out the numbers he'd worked up and got their attention. He's got solid business sense.

Kwame on the other hand is a coattail rider. In the side interview last night he said his management style was to pick good people and get out of their way so they can do their thing. Great in the real world, except that on the show you don't really get to "pick" your people. When there's only 3 of you, you need to do more that just that.

Regarding Bill's bitching - most of it is just to the camera. When it comes to game time, he puts aside his feelings and does the job. The only thing I'd fault him on is not expressing valid opinions to his PM. When he thought the tiger was a bad idea and that the VIP's weren't going to wait in a long line, he should have said something to Kwame. But in a competition like this, pointing other others' weaknesses to the camera may be a tactic, since they know Trump reviews film.

Nick
Friday, March 26, 2004

"But spending 1k to make 30k is a good move."

I'm really curious about that. For instance I believe that the "take" on Blackjack is something like 2%, so if people spent $100,000, on average $2,000 would be skimmed, but $98,000 would go back to the players in winnings. While slots, which I think was the focus here, probalby yields a higher profit, it still has to pay out enough to keep the suckers pulling the handle. I believe that the amount they spoke of was gross spending by the patrons, but if 90% of that went back out in winnings it becomes less impressive. It seems ridiculous that giving away a car could have been supported (especially given that it was catering to people already in the casino).

.
Friday, March 26, 2004

Both teams did little to bring money into the casino that they weren't going to get. The idea seemed to be to get credit for revenue than to actually increase it.

Amy spoke a little about getting people to come down the escalators -- that was probably the only mention of it at all.

The VIP move was the only thing notable and it was given a lot of credit by the guy who runs the casinos and Bill was on that from the beginning of the show and defended it from Amy's machinations. Nick accidentally gave away that Bill had negotiated an exclusive deal -- tried to pull it back since that makes Bill look really good.

Amy was smart to bring in Katrina -- easy beat and now she's practically guaranteed to be in the last show (barring a huge mistake).

I am picking Bill, Amy and Troy as the final three and Bill as the winner.

Lou Franco
Friday, March 26, 2004

"For instance I believe that the "take" on Blackjack is something like 2%"

No - what you're thinking of is that in Blackjack, if you play the game right, you can come out 2% ahead. Very, very few people play the game right, and the skim across the casino is *very* high (you may notice that in Vegas they have no problems putting up entire buildings every few years as a competitive measure).

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

Check out the morning interview on KNX Radio-L.A. this morning with one of the ladies "fired" from the show.
Sounds like she gave up some info, I could be wrong, but I was going to work and distracted to hear the question about one of the participants.
It was between 8 and 9 a.m.

L.A.
Friday, March 26, 2004

Actually, there was a subtle point that you might have missed about the promotions...

The winning promotion required that people be *present to win*, and the promotion ran from 10am to 10pm. The other promotion did not require this, and so did not encourage people to stick around. This was obliquely mentioned by either Trump or his advisors at one point, but I forget what they said. Something about nobody wanting to hang around for a $300 rental. So, it seems that part of the point of the promotion was to get people to stay on the gambling floor longer. That is, to convert passers-through into hangers-around. :)

Phillip J. Eby
Friday, March 26, 2004

If T-K-B lose next week Bill will end up in the board room. If he's PM he'll probably get booted as a losing PM, if Troy is PM he'll take Bill rather than his homey Kwame and in a contest between Troy and Bill, Troy will win.

Therefore Bill will get booted next week if they lose.

However A-N should lose next week. Having 3 people rather than 2 is a big advantage. Expect Nick to get the boot in this case, unless Amy pulls out another clunker like the $300 car rental.

The Ronald
Friday, March 26, 2004

Also, although it's not mentioned I think the teams have the same budget for each task. One team chose to have a $1000 give away while the other gave away $300 and hired models (hookers) to promote the crummy $300 prize.

The Ronald
Friday, March 26, 2004

"hired models (hookers) to promote the crummy $300 prize."

So the lesson for our female execs is that you don't use *your own* sexuality to sell...

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

gossip: http://nypost.com/gossip/17507.htm

Friday, March 26, 2004

With so few contestants left, I think there will have to be a change in the rules pretty soon. Part of the drama is in how the project leader decides who will share the risk of being fired. With a two-person team, that drama is gone. What sort of changes might be coming? Maybe the winning team will have to send one person to the boardroom regardless of winning. That would be a huge shock for the winning project leader. Or they could dissolve the teams and everybody competes individually. Or they might become a single team, with success/failure measured against some arbitrary criteria - if they beat it the project leader is exempt from the boardroom and has to pick who goes in and if they don't beat it the project leader has to be one of the ones who goes in. What else could they do to keep the boardroom interesting?

apprentice watcher
Friday, March 26, 2004

If you go to the Apprentice website on NBC.com they post the "dossier" stating the rules for each contest, it includes things like budget.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and implement an original game design to attract new customers to the Taj Mahal Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City, increasing the Taj Mahal's revenue in casino gaming.

1."Each team must design and construct a game of chance or skill to be installed around the perimter of the Taj Mahal casino floor."

2. "Each team has $2,000 seed money."

3. "Teach team will have the services of a Taj Mahal carpenter to assist that team in building a its casino game to its specifications"

4. "After playing the team's game, the customers will receive electronically coded 'player cards' to track the amount of money they spend on gambling in the casino. Customers will only be tracked to one teams game (which ever team they register with first)."

etc.

So.

It had to be a contest, no flying in high rollers.

Troy's decision to ask the carpenter what's the biggest thing he ever built was a really good idea. As was the idea to talk to the guys who put on the show. Amy's team really didn't use any of the resources at their disposal. Nick completely disappeared during this episode, and even though Katrina didn't contribute much, she tried. Nick was seen giving up while at the mic "Oh, what does it matter anyway, who cares."

I'm still not clear how any of this "attracted new customers" as it all seemed to happen within the building, wouldn't all these people be existing hotel customers? Maybe it's designed to take hotel customers and turn them in to casino customers.

In light of all of this, Troy & Bill were the strongest players this week. Kwame's decision to work on the bus was obviously a winner as well. It's absolutely foolish not to use that time. I can really see why Troy is a JoS favorite.

http://www.nbc.com/nbc/The_Apprentice/images/imgs_dossier/week11_casino_game_promotion.jpg

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

"This was a stupid idea, whose idea was this?"

"The Donald, can I call you The Donald? We brought in nearly 50% more people than the other team. They won entirely because of the VIP customers. It wasn't the idea that won the day, but the VIP customers."

www.MarkTAW.com
Friday, March 26, 2004

If the budget is 2k, then giving away a car is hard -- not impossible -- how much would the dealership pay for advertising on a show like The Apprentice? A $300 rental is pretty lame -- A ~200 mile limo ride (get you back home to NYC or Philly) would be better and still within the budget.

Lou Franco
Friday, March 26, 2004

Nick was seen giving up while at the mic "Oh, what does it matter anyway, who cares."

No no no - it was the best quote of the night:
"Come get a chance to win a car. Enter our drawing and... forget it, I can't compete with a tiger"

*Totally* sincere, and I gotta agree with him. [grin]

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

"This was a stupid idea, whose idea was this?"

That really threw me on the previews. I thought he was going to rant about bringing a live tiger into the crowd with almost no safeguards. In retrospect, I have to figure that either the casino got actual complaints about misleading advertising (lots of people thought the car was the prize), or else Trumpster himself walked in and thought "holy shit, they got a *car*?" then found out it was just $300 and got pissed because even he fell for the bait and switch.

Philo

Philo
Friday, March 26, 2004

I missed a part of the last show -- can someone please tell me whose idea the VIP project was? I somehow thought it was Troy's idea and Bill just helped implement it?

sea_099
Friday, March 26, 2004

Oh I dunno, you approve of Nick's "I can't compete with a tiger" over a PA system, but disprove of Bill's *private* comments about not liking Troy?

Can't compete with a tiger? They got more signups by a wide margin.

www.MarkTAW.com
Saturday, March 27, 2004

I don't disapprove of Bill's private comments; in fact I agree with them. My gut feeling is that Bill is more of a "we must have a plan" guy while Troy is a "let's see what happens when we get there" guy. Both can succeed, but making two people like that work together is a formula for misery. :-)

My point was that after all this time, Troy *should* know that he and Bill are on two different wavelengths and think very, very carefully about choosing someone that may introduce contention into the team - there's no time to manage personalities on these tasks.

So it's not about what Bill said - it's that it appears Troy thought "Trump doesn't like it when we pick Amy, so I'll pick the guy that really doesn't like me"

However, I'll also note that if Troy's a real student of character, not picking Amy had one disastrous effect on the other team - leaving Amy and Katrina on the same team to bicker.

Philo

Philo
Saturday, March 27, 2004

I 'm thinking that if Amy and Nick win and Bill is PM on the other team Bill could take Troy in to the boardroom and Troy could be out. I know Trump likes Troy, but he can be a bit smarmy when he deals with people in that singy-songy "com'on over here darlin'" way. At the end of the day I think the Trump team find Troy entertaining and street smart but not particularly polished. In a "real business" task I'm not sure Troy is sincere enough to establish or inspire a "yeah let's do business" level relationship. If Troy pulls out the "I'm just a country boy..." crap in the wrong place or time he could blow a deal easily. Gamesmanship aside, Nick is the weak nut and needs to go. Amy was an idiot to fish off the company pier, it's bad enough anytime but during an interview process...give me a break! Amys judgement on that situation could kill her in the end. I'm starting to lean toward Bill.

addicted to trump
Saturday, March 27, 2004

Now that I think of it. It was Bill that told Nick that Amy liked him. Bill engineered their relationship (or at least pushed it along). He knew they would effectivel nullify each other if there was romance involved. So Katrina was wrong, Amy won't play all the men, it's Bill playing Amy and Nick.

Troy might have known that his style isn't compatible with Bill, and also known that Troy and Kwame are the same. Choosing Bill was a smart choice because Bill will cover the bases they don't, a strategy that proved itself to be right. "Let's choose Bill, but not make him the PM so we can get all the glory. He'll come up with a really good idea (like advertising on pedicabs - he was PM that week) and execute it, and we'll get all the credit."

www.MarkTAW.com
Saturday, March 27, 2004

Lolol, I give Bill a lot of credit for having such a powerful reality distortion field.

Amy came up with the advertising idea, Bill's contribution was to say "Uh, that sounds good." (which is more than he generally contributes)

Bill didn't engineer the relationship between Amy and Nick, Amy's booty engineered the relationship.

Bill's problem is that he's been running his own business. He simply can't handle it when he's not in charge and he's not used to having to cope with people.

The Ronald
Saturday, March 27, 2004

"No - what you're thinking of is that in Blackjack, if you play the game right, you can come out 2% ahead. Very, very few people play the game right, and the skim across the casino is *very* high."

That's not true. There's not a single game in the casino where the rules of the casino don't offer an edge to the house, when you're competing against the house. (In games where you compete against players, like poker, then the house skims off the winning pots and is guaranteed a take.) Note that in Blackjack, counting cards is against the casino rules, and will get you booted. And yes, they will catch you. I guarantee it.

You are right that, in order to lower the house odds as low as possible, you absolute have to play every single hand correctly.

The typical house edge on blackjack is actually around 0.5%. It all depends on the structure of the game. It's the second lowest house edge in a casino typically, right behind odds-based craps (the more odds you play, the lower the house edge). There's a reason why most casinos have a dozen blackjack tables and half a dozen craps tables but thousands of slot machines. :)

The best site I've seen for showing the mathematical odds of casino games is http://wizardsofodds.com/

Brad Wilson (dotnetguy.techieswithcats.com)
Saturday, March 27, 2004

Not true. Some Video Poker machines when played correctly have a positive EV for the player.

Ken Uston
Saturday, March 27, 2004

> Amy came up with the advertising idea, Bill's contribution
> was to say "Uh, that sounds good." (which is more than
> he generally contributes)

Look at Amy's attitutude when she brought up the idea, she was hesitant and just threw it out there, he could've rejected it, but recognized it's potential and ran with it. Then look at Amy's performance the next week.

Bill effectively ran Planet Hollywood while Kwame was out signing autographs. Who did they bring their receipts to at the end of the night? Bill.

> Bill didn't engineer the relationship between Amy and
> Nick, Amy's booty engineered the relationship.

I specifically remember Bill telling Nick that Amy liked him, I think he said something about "feeding the fires." It was already there, but Bill egged him on. I thought just to give him a confidence boost, but now I think it was to play the game.

www.MarkTAW.com
Saturday, March 27, 2004

"Some Video Poker machines when played correctly have a positive EV for the player."

This is such a sucker tactic that I can't believe people fall for it. When casino's say "Our slots pay out up to 103%!" or some such phrase, what they mean is that exactly one machine pays out 103%, and the rest pay out less than 100%. Even a slot machine or video poker that pays 99% -- which is really high -- is still going to take at least 2x as much of your money over the long term compared to blackjack or craps.

Since you don't know which machine this is that does it, and couldn't tell even if you were sitting in front of it, you have to consider what the actual average is, regardless of whether there is a single instance machine that might pay back more than is put into it.

Compare this to games like craps or blackjack, where you can know the exact house edge when you sit down.

If you want to make money in a casino, play poker well enough to beat the other players at the table. Anything else is going to take your money over the long term. You HAVE to look at playing a game like blackjack or craps or slots or video poker as paid-for entertainment.

Brad Wilson (dotnetguy.techieswithcats.com)
Saturday, March 27, 2004

Be a real winner. Own the casino. Or a myriad of other stable ways the casino pays off for you...

I wonder if they make sure you don't have a gambling streak as a precondition for employment, if you man a game.

Tayssir John Gabbour
Sunday, March 28, 2004

Ok Brad, stick to the cats and leave the Casino talk to people who've been in a casino.

Video Poker machines are highly regulated. They have payout schedules listed on the machines. You can run a simulation to determine the machine's payout. The payout on the classic "9/5" Deuces Wild machine with correct play results in a .76% edge for the player.

You cannot have two identical machines and set one to playout 103% and the other 95%. That's against the law in Nevada.

Also you can't play poker in a casino and make money at low limits. The rake is too high.

Ken Uston
Sunday, March 28, 2004

Bill will win. He's the best qualified.

Bill is, IMHO, the most well rounded business man. He *always* focuses on the business goals.

He'll make the best CEO. And in the end, that's all TRUMP cares about. So, Bill will win.

With Trump Ice, he recognized that it didn't matter how good the product was, it mattered how well the businesses could sell it "they care about profit".

He recognized that importance of the VIPs at the casino. And he followed through by getting exlusive rights to the VIPs AND doing the sales himself instead of pawning it off to one of the "models".

He supported Amy's hesitant suggestion about advertising and then added to it by suggesting they target past relationships.

His strength is that he:
* recognizes good ideas
* Is focused on the business goals
* Is able to EXECUTE and manage all th details.
* Never gets personal during the competition.
* Isnt' worried about his ego, like Nick is. When he complains it's always about the impact of something on the business goal, not a veiled excuse to appeal to his ego (as Nick's "I don't do business that way" (re: Kwame's autographs) or "I have to give him a full refund" (for advrtising that fell off the rickshaw)

Mr. Analogy
Tuesday, March 30, 2004

The Donald is my uncle. He wants Kwame to win. I asked him. Believe it!

Donaldsnephew
Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Bill, ,Troy and Kwame smashed this one out of the park. Their ideas were brilliant. But it was Troy’s idea to have a contest. Way to go. He also found the wheel to make it fun. I’m not sure whose idea the tiger was, but it was a brilliant one. The tiger was designed to attract people and the team was covering its bases to assure crowds. The unintended consequence was that it worked too well, causing a lull in action. In business you have to take these kinds of calculated risks. That is why this team really shined on this project.

Amy, Bill and Katrina should not be faulted for poor execution either. Their strategy did attract more people. I thought Amy and Katrina actually worked well together during the negotiation with the car dealer. Katrina lured the dealer although he was originally opposed to the idea of loaning his car. Amy then closed the deal. That showed good teamwork and under other circumstances the two would be pleased. It was Katrina’s pettiness that turned it to a negative.

Amy and Nick made a major mistake when they elected to mix business with pleasure. A boss wants employees to make decisions based on business and not on personnel affairs. Trump even chided Amy in the boardroom about her ‘lover.’ Amy took her eye off the ball on this one. I predict Amy will see her error in the next project and kick Nick far away. Forget romance when there is this much in stake.

Kwame will be the next to go. Can someone tell me what ideas he has come up with? He was the master of the ‘cash incentive’ in the rickshaw episode and the Planet Hollywood but that’s not enough.

BizGuy
Wednesday, March 31, 2004

I don't think Kwame is next because I don't think there's any way Nick and Amy beat them. But if they do, Kwame should go unless he hits a homerun in the loss. With Troy backing Kwame up, Bill is in trouble if they lose. It's gonna be rough from here on out. In the end, I agree that Bill is the best candidate. Amy just validated him in the last episode, so that might help against Troy or Kwame. In the end, he's the only one of these guys I'd want running my business.

Lou Franco
Thursday, April 1, 2004

yeah, I KNEW it! Troy the boy kicked to the curb...

addicted to trump
Thursday, April 1, 2004

mark cuban hires kuwame

mart
Tuesday, April 20, 2004