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Is the IT Recession Over?

Seems Mr. Larry Ellison has said recently that Oracle has seen the end of the IT recession.  Oracle and its partner network has seen a rapid increase it training and orders in recent months.  They view the increase as a precursor for the development of new technologies and business integration.

So what do all of you think?  Have layoffs slowed?  Do you see that management has started to OK projects to be started and opened budgets?  Maybe after the holidays we will see the economy for technology ramp up?

Chris Woodruff
Thursday, November 14, 2002

From what I get the slump (at least in Europ) is far from over. As for the increase in training, this might be the result of a lot of companies switching to in-house expertise, as opposed to consultant contracts.

Just me (Sir to you)
Thursday, November 14, 2002

Within Europe things are not consistent. Arguably the strongest economy in Europe at the moment is the British one, and it looks like vacancies are on the up there. It is still not easy to find a job, but I think the worst is over. The rest of Europe is not so lucky, in Switzerland (where I am) it still feels like the economy is on the way down and the IT job market is apalling. The crash of Swissair (financially that is) earlier this year didn't help.

The unemployment figures that I know are (unemployed/population):
Switzerland 150K/7M
Germany 4M/80M
Britain 1M/60M

Assuming that the ratio of working people to total population is similar for these countries, some idea of the problem can be seen.

It is for this reason that I think that a return to the UK may be in order since I've been out of work since the beginning of March without any sign of employment. I've only had four interviews during that period :-(


Thursday, November 14, 2002

There is some sign of recovery, but early stage recovery. The IT sales market looks like it is picking up, motherboard manufacturers are running flat out as big OEMs are stocking up on inventory. But that IT spend has been delayed by 2 years, people are replacing ancient machines. I don't think that trend has extended to projects and IT expansion projects (web development, big chip software purchases, contracting).

Certainly in europe things are bad. I personally have been laid off twice in the last year, with 6 months between 2 of those jobs (Eccles, I really sympathise, I know what thats like, and last time I checked there was nothing cheap about living in switzerland, though you should try Dublin, probably as bad).

A lot of my friends are still out of work or only barely secured work in the field they are experienced in, or jobs that they don't enjoy.

Here in Ireland we are still having high profile shutdowns,  a lot of my friends just went abroad, didn't get work or anything.

WHatever form the recovery is going to take, I can't see it translating into a lot of jobs.

Thursday, November 14, 2002

Is there still one person in IT industry that still believes what M. Ellison says ?

IMHO, the IT market can't stay as low as today for long because the real needs (not Dotcom speculation generated ones) grow.

On the other hand, these needs will be expressed by mature customers, which means the market will become much much harder than it was in our Carebears(TM) period.

Finally, the IT market is pending to US economy, and this is the biggest problem because US Stock Market may face problems in the next month.

Ralph Chaléon
Thursday, November 14, 2002

The recession will not be over anywhere until the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer one way or the other. People will just sit on the fence until they know what is going to happen. This means no new projects.

The situation in the UK is slightly strange because of the move to a service based economy. We may have a lot of jobs but the vast majority of them are low value retail / part time jobs (not that retail is not important, just that people in this area are exploited heavily.)

I read somewhere recently that 50% of all IT contractors in the UK are idle at the moment. There is some way to go to take up this slack.

Tony E
Thursday, November 14, 2002

The contracting market in Austalia is a disaster.
I know plenty of good people who don't have work, some of them are more experienced and probably more knowlegable than I am, luckily I am in a secure project with over a year to run. Agents and companies don't return calls and really put the screws on rates, people with families and urgent financial needs are really getting bent over the table, especially as the period approaching Christmas is traditionally slow anyway.

Lucky COuntry?
Thursday, November 14, 2002

Austalia? - Australia I mean of course.

Lucky Country?
Thursday, November 14, 2002

I was on Wall Street today, talking to a few consultants in J P Morgan, quite a few of them are going to be laid off.

As far as I know, no one on the Street is hiring, Microsoft is the only company that I know is hiring.

Prakash S
Thursday, November 14, 2002

Don't believe what Ellison says! In fact do not believe anyone:-)

Prakash S
Thursday, November 14, 2002

"The recession will not be over anywhere until the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer one way or the other. People will just sit on the fence until they know what is going to happen. This means no new projects"

Hrm, Does this mean the recession will never end?  Cause there have been problems in the middle east for the last 2000 or so years. 

Vincent Marquez
Thursday, November 14, 2002

Big Fricking NO!

An Optimist
Thursday, November 14, 2002

Here in NYC we are beginning to see an upturn in demand.  The consulting companies that I work for are starting to report better conditions and with any luck at all this will continue.  Overall, however, things are still quite slow. 

God do I ever miss the bubble.

Friday, November 15, 2002

The only significant IT hiring that seems to be going on in the world is the asian countries such as India, Phillipines, and China.

In the United States:

*  All the large IT consulting and staffing firms are hurting.
*  Large corporations aren't spending.
*  Dot-bombs are still going bankrupt.
*  Telecoms are still laying off IT workers -- just not as many of them as previously

If you like to read about weekly job layoffs you might want to visit

The only bright spot seems to be in the government defense sector.  Techies who have security clearances are a hot commodity nowadays.

In a recent CBS marketwatch survey over 60% of the CEOs surveyed said that they expect to trim more of their workforce next year.

one programmer's opinion
Sunday, November 17, 2002

JPMorgan willl be outsourcing their entire back office to IBM.  Deal to be penned in the next few months. 

Sunday, November 17, 2002

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