Monty Hall solution flawed?
R Jeppesen
Monty chose to give you a choice to switch with knowledge of what door you chose and what door the prize is behind. Nowhere does it say that Monty had to give you that choice. You don't know what Monty's reasons for giving you a choice are. You don't know if he would have given you a choice had you picked another door.
Ham Fisted
Here is a restatement of the problem which maintain the spirit of the original problem but alleviates doubts that the problem is ill posed. Unfortunately, the explicit rendering of the problem in this way reveals much of the thought process required in the solution.
P Hyden
I would like to make the solution simpler. Assume there are 100 doors and you select 1 of the doors. You have a 1% chance of getting the correct answer. Let's then assume you are shown 98 empty doors. Do you then select the last door or keep your own? As the previous person suggested -- you should switch. The reason is that by having shown you 98 doors and letting you switch, you have in fact been "given" 99 choices (98 empty ones and 1 unknown). Your original selection only gives you 1 choice. Therefore, by switching your winning percentage is always
Kishi A. Teixeira
U can find a very good explanation for the Monty Hall Problem in the following link:
vijayakumar b
Think again Jeppesen; conditional probability is often very nonintuitive. Write out a table of possibilities.
Jeremy Slickcode
How about this explanation: the probability of winning if you don't switch is simply the probability that you pick the right door on your first try. The probability of doing that is 1/3. Hence the probability of winning if you do switch is 2/3.
Lawrence Wang
Guess I should have read the post directly above mine before posting. :)
Lawrence Wang
The answer is "always Switch", and the probability of winning is 2/3 if you do. I've never liked this answer.
AllanL5
OK, I can explain why the 2/3 answer is correct. It really is easier with the 100 door example. You pick one door. CLEARLY, you have a 1/100 chance of getting that one right.
AllanL5
Best explanation I've seen.
Joe Bennett
I didn't try experimenting yet, but all the explanations I've read so far didn't really convince me in a better success probability of switching.
Dino
This thread has been coming up every couple of months for two years or more.
Stephen Jones
Josh McGeehon
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