Russian roulette Remember the Monty Hall problem? This is somehow a similar one. You guys should give it a try:
Lenko Donchev
2nd shooter by far
B
Unlike the Monty Hall problem -- the game starts at the first pull, not the first 'choice'.
T.J.
B: Does it bother you that the percentages total > 100%? Why or why not?
Brian
Why shouldn't the percentages total more than 100? Each percentage represents the chances of that person alone. If the game were played with 6 people, the last two would both fairly obviously have a 100% chance each of surviving.
Paul Viney
Since it's obviously OK for the percentages in the 6 person game to total > 100%, it follows that it's ok in the 2 person game.
Brian
The reason that the percentages can total more than 100 is that you can have more than one person surviving. Seeing as the game stops when one person dies, the percentage chance of dying cannot add up to more than 100%, and will add up to exactly 100% when at least 4 people are playing.
Paul Viney
Incidently, as I understand Russian Roulette, the whole point is that the bullets are heavier and should end up at the bottom. If this is indeed the case, then it skews the probabilities considerably and going first might be the best option after all!
Paul Viney
Paul:
Brian
Thanks Brian, that's what I get for not reading the question properly :-). To disown all my previous posts - with 2 players the chances of survival can't add up to anything except 100%. Assuming all start positions are equally possible, player one loses in 4 of them, implying that going second would be a very good choice.
Paul Viney
Paul,
what if
Yes, in this case you're dead. Carrying your argument through, it's always better to choose to go first in the case when the second person will die. Unfortunately you don't know when that will be.
Paul Viney
I think that you should not work out the possibilitys because if you are stupid enough to play the game then you should take the consequences without trying to be a smartass. SO THERE!
fluffy
The probabilities of survival are as follows:
IG
Fog Creek Home |