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.Net market share

Are these figures accurate?

*  There are ~6M professional developers worldwide, about  90% of whom target Windows

*  There are about 2.5M .NET developers

*  > 60 of the Fortune 100 develop using .NET

*  Forrester says that 56% of enterprises in North America are choosing .NET for their development requirements vs. 44% choosing J2EE

The statistics came from this site:  www.sellsbrothers.com

Ewan's Dad
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

I guess it depends on how you slice the onion - About once every 4 months I write a perl script to do some random document processing...does this make me a perl programmer? If it's based on resume skills then about 90% of developers know 90% of the technologies out there.

This particular stat is questionable because they quote it and then attribute the stats to a Microsoft employee (who has no reference to the stats on this blog) -- I'd believe a real market research  organization quite a bit more. Furthermore I do find it hard to believe. My direct team is 19 people, and I'm the sole qualified .NET-capable developer. Throughout my very large organization (a financial organization), there are .NET initiatives, but there are dramatically more Cobol, J2EE, or other technology developers. My experience with peers in the industry seems to be similar, with toe dipping in the .NET pool, but vastly fewer than 50% of them have any credible competence in .NET.

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

I'd argue that the very last stat was blatantly wrong.  To say that 100% of all development in north America is being covered by J2EE and .NET cannot be true.

Steven
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Not necessarily, Steven.

If those 44% using J2EE also use .NET, there's a lot of space left over. It's not a mutually exclusive deal.

Edward
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Uh Dennis? You're refuting the statistics presented by Chris Sells (who's a .Net evangelist and has the reason and resources to know) with your anecdotal evidence of 19 people and one company?

Philo

Philo
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Yeah, one company of 60,000 people, similar to the last company I worked with of 65,000 people. Sorry about my small sampling on tiny fringe organizations.

I'm curious, could you tell me how Chris Sells would "have the resources to know" the global development market? If "the resources" are a market research company, then lets see some attribution. However as I stated, and is clearly evident, the stats apparently came from this guy, http://blogs.msdn.com/johnmont/. Oooh, credible. I guess that's the "resources" that Mr. Sells has - a contact in Microsoft who most certainly would have no bias to oversell the prevalence of .NET developers.

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

In any case, I think it was pretty clear that I wasn't "refuting", I was questioning about the actual source and methodology (I want to know the percentages of developers working _primarily_ in a particular environment), particularly given that it purportedly came from a Microsoft employee.

This just in: 98% of Joel On Software readers are named "Dennis".

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Strikes me as funny numbers. Given the size of Fortune 100 companies and the prevalence of Java/.NET stuff, I'd find it odd that the figures aren't closer to 100%.
I mean, almost every TomDickandHarry product out there claims to be in use by $very-high-percentage of the Fortune 100.

try http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=%22percent+of+the+Fortune+100%22&btnG=Search

Just me (Sir to you)
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

"The statistics came from this site:  www.sellsbrothers.com"

Well well a .net fanboy site.  I'd trust those numbers.

.net, the equivalent of MS Bob.
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

"Yeah, one company of 60,000 people, similar to the last company I worked with of 65,000 people. Sorry about my small sampling on tiny fringe organizations."

J2SE downloads: 110,000,000
(I can't find a number on .Net downloads, which wouldn't include new installs or VS.Net)

Your companies are less than .06% of that. Or, more appropriately, just two companies.

"I'm curious, could you tell me how Chris Sells would "have the resources to know" the global development market? If "the resources" are a market research company, then lets see some attribution."

I simply meant that, due to his job and his reputation, he encounters a lot more companies than you do. Granted that his experience is likely biased towards .Net, but it's still broader than, say, two companies.

"However as I stated, and is clearly evident, the stats apparently came from this guy, http://blogs.msdn.com/johnmont/. Oooh, credible. I guess that's the "resources" that Mr. Sells has - a contact in Microsoft who most certainly would have no bias to oversell the prevalence of .NET developers."

And, going back to my thread about bias, I'm starting to develop the opinion that if you are going to say that nobody can present unbiased views or statistics, then you simply shouldn't participate in threads like these, since you can't present an unbiased opinion in good faith, you can't appreciate any arguments presented in good faith, and you can't respect any statistics presented in good faith.

So why bother?

A lot of people are using Java. A lot of people are using .Net. That's pretty much endgame for you.

[shrug]

Philo

Philo
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

> 98%

I believe it!

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Chris Sells DOES have the ultimate answers about .NET penetration.

Monsanto is the only reputable place to find out the truth about the safety of genetically modified organisms!

And if you want real answers about the safety and efficacy of all antidepressants, look no further than Eli Lilly!

Furthermore, Yasser Arafat is the right man to be asking about the oppression of the totally innocent Palestinians by the wicked Jews!

I believe Osama bin Laden when he says it was he CIA that blew up the WTC and so should you!

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

"Granted that his experience is likely biased towards .Net, but it's still broader than, say, two companies."

His experience is overwhelmingly biased and selective towards .NET - he most certainly is not a reliable source of information of general technology trends given that his specialization is highly targeted (versus, say, a technology specialists whose job is to remain technology agnostic and evaluate trends and technologies). However, to repeat yet again, his entry clearly states that he is merely reiterating what someone passed on to him (how this came to be about him is obviously because of skim reading in your case).

"I'm starting to develop the opinion that if you are going to say that nobody can present unbiased views or statistics, then you simply shouldn't participate in threads like these, since you can't present an unbiased opinion in good faith, you can't appreciate any arguments presented in good faith, and you can't respect any statistics presented in good faith."

Being cognizent of biases and outright deceptive statements from "compliance practitioners" is something that comes as a natural protective measure after a period of time in this industry. In this case it is an extraordinary example because the 'source' of a thoroughly ambiguous stat was some random Microsoft sales employee (supposedly...it isn't referenced on the source's page).

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

For __most of us__, does it really matter? Who cares!

If you are MORE productive in .NET development ... that is what matters. That's what affects your ROI, so do it!

If you're curiuos, go ahead and track your own usage statistics of how many times you have to install the .NET framework.

All markets are different, anyhow.

I'm so tired of these "640K is enough" discussions ...

Anon
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Come on people, 73.5% of statistics are made up on the spot anyway.  Go back to work!

But seriously, it seems pretty clear that .NET is ramping up bigtime.  I did a little VisualBasic project last week and it's the first time I started to having trouble finding VB resources.  Google searches were always bringing up .NET results.  That's quite telling.

It's perhaps more important that the resources are out there than how many companies are using a technology.  It's the 3rd party (and 1st party) support -- not the quantity of developers -- that matter.

Almost Anonymous
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

The numbers I have are as follows (.NET first, Java Second)
US 34% 32%
EMEA 23% 26%
UK 30% 22%
Netherlands 30% 27%
Italy 21% 24%
Spain 24% 30%
France 14% 25%
Germany 14% 32%
These are as percentages of professional programmers.
Which I believe was from a Developer Tracking Survey released in December '03.
These are MS supplied numbers but bearing in mind what they show for France & Germany I'd be prepared to believe them

Peter Ibbotson
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Almost,

"But seriously, it seems pretty clear that .NET is ramping up bigtime.  I did a little VisualBasic project last week and it's the first time I started to having trouble finding VB resources.  Google searches were always bringing up .NET results.  That's quite telling."

Very true. Several years back I was a dissenting voice in a migration of a project to .NET (primarily because it was a floundering project without real requirements, and the conversion to .NET was proposed primarily as a "bide some time" silver bullet) because of exactly this - at the time .NET was new, and I knew that we'd be alone with each difficulty/misunderstanding we faced. Now you can Google up virtually anything about .NET nuances, vastly speeding development, and there is a superb body of "how to" documentation.

Anon,

"For __most of us__, does it really matter? Who cares!"

Absolutely true. Stats like these are presented as a sort of social proof - "Other people are moving to .NET, so what the hell is up with you?"

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Chris Sells isn't just a .NET fanboy, he works for Microsoft.

It is fair to be skeptical of any numbers you get from him -- or Forrester in general, in my experience.

Having said that -- who cares? 

Either .NET is right for you or it isn't.  It has clearly reached a critical mass wherein Microsoft will continue to support the tools & technology and there will be enough developers available to hire for projects.  Beyond those concerns, who gives a crap what the exact percentages it has versus Java are?

Mr Fancypants
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

To be cliche: There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.  The latter is *always* all about interpretation of both what is explicitly stated and what is left unstated.

"There are ~6M professional developers worldwide, about  90% of whom target Windows"

I would doubt that only 10% of the world's developers target something other than Windows as their primary platform.  But they didn't really say primary, did they?  And technically, anyone who develops in Java (or any of the interpreted cross platform scripting languages) is targeting Windows, directly or indirectly.

"There are about 2.5M .NET developers"

Wow, you mean in the what, 4 years?, that .NET has been around, it's already won over almost half of all developers around the globe???  Not likely.  But maybe 2.5M people have said "hey, what's this new thing all about?" and dabbled in it.

"60 of the Fortune 100 develop using .NET"

"Forrester says that 56% of enterprises in North America are choosing .NET for their development requirements vs. 44% choosing J2EE"

And how many of those also develop for another platform?


Basically, all that can be seen from these statistics is that .NET has reasonably penetrated the development field and become a major player.  You really can't draw any valid conclusions about market share vs other platforms.

Joe
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Figures never lie.
But liars figure.

Mr. Analogy
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

> 98% of Joel On Software readers are named "Dennis"

Now if you'd said that 98% of JoS readers who talk any sense are named "Dennis", I might have believed you.

Grumpy old fart
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

The amazing thing is that in a few years .NET will be old news and the next "biggest greatest thing" from Redmond will be hotly debated just like this thread.

I remember when COM was the premier solution to all the world's problems.  Just like COBOL, then PL/I, then C++, then ... well hell, just fill in the blank of your own particular technology du jour that ultimately was phased out and/or bit you in the ass.

The smart guys/gals right now are not using the latest and greatest technically fascinating thing, but rather are picking some stable, mature, (ie "old")  technology to solve the problem at hand.

Just my $0.02.  I'm old, what do I know ...

Mitch & Murray (from Downtown)
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

.NET isn't exactly bleeding edge you know...

Joe
Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Will .NET mature to the level of Visual Studio 6 or some new "great" technology will appear before it will happened?

Igor
Friday, July 30, 2004

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