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Discussion Board




Indian economy

http://www.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/05/17/india.economy/index.html

India's financial markets are in turmoil today.  Investors are worried about industries being nationalized.  It's great to see American companies are betting their future on this country. HAHAHAHAHA

Troy McClure
Monday, May 17, 2004

A failing economy anywhere in the world is bad for all of us.  This isn't really very funny at all.


Monday, May 17, 2004

Though I don't vote for the Congress party as much as I'd back the BJP for what it has given India in the last few years, I still think that the current hue over an economic downturn in only natural and cyclic in nature because of a change in the government. It happens always. What it reflects is the state of the stock markets, which is mostly led by FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) and the business confidence index (which is again a cookery of the Confederation of Indian Industry and Nascomm), and is not a structural shift in public opinion. Neither are the fundamentals so worrying that they warrant a slump.

It is passe. Just that the press has to talk.

Sathyaish Chakravarthy
Monday, May 17, 2004

Here we see an American who laughs when other countries economies take a turn for the worse. He was probably the same American who posted message wondering why the US didn't get more support for its foreign military ventures.

On behalf of the more concerned inhabitants of this continent: sorry, Indians. We hope the economy picks up soon.

Globalist
Monday, May 17, 2004

http://www.dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/the_characters/images/icon_elbonians.gif

Woo Hoo!!!! Less jobs for the Elbonians to take over!!!!!!

genx'er
Monday, May 17, 2004

Hey, I recognize him from such posts as, "Macroeconomics, who needs it?" and "Isolationism: Your Friend and Mine"...

sigh.

Greg Hurlman
Monday, May 17, 2004

On the contrary, my friend, I am quite sympathetic to the Indians who are affected by this matter.  I am upset at American companies who are chasing a cheap pool of labour.  (According to this article there are 300 million Indians who live on less than 1 dollar per day). 

It's corporate greed at it's best.  It's just nice to see, that sometimes there is a price to be paid. 

Troy McClure
Monday, May 17, 2004

This is a temporary dip and caused by the hiatus between the current government leaving and whatever the Congress party puts up as an alternative.

The markets will rise as soon as the government takes over,

Mumbai is an extraordinarily active stock exchange for individuals who are all chasing profits.

Simon Lucy
Monday, May 17, 2004

"I am quite sympathetic to the Indians who are affected by this matter."

So if an Indian is making double what he would be making otherwise by working for an American company, this is an unjust exploitation of a cheap pool of labour? I'm sure they're really happy that you're looking out for them...

"I am upset at American companies who are chasing a cheap pool of labour.  (According to this article there are 300 million Indians who live on less than 1 dollar per day). "

And an economic collapse helps it how?

"It's corporate greed at it's best."

It's a capitalist market economy at its best, and the rising waters lift all boats (there were hundreds of millions of very poor people in India before offshoring took off, and I would wager that there are fewer now that India has started integrating into the global economy).

Anti-globalization comments are so transparent and logically unsound, and it's amazing how often the speaker will pretend that they're taking the high road and looking out for the poor, when really what they're saying is that the world's poor should remain poor and the status quo should continue with the rich countries being rich, and the poor staying desperately poor.

[BTW: I'm not an offshoring advocate when it comes to software development -- it seldom actually WORKs, and is often much more expensive when real costs play a part rather than simple labour equations]

.
Monday, May 17, 2004

I personally don't think Indians should be so surpriced by these kind of reactions. As you just have to look how some Americans reacted when Japanese cars started to sell well in the US.

I remember seeing images of people being attacked protests and bumberstickers.

And now Indians should also know because they had the same problem while under British rule, they were forced to import all kinds of goods and on the other hand after independence they started all kinds of laws to stop importing foreign goods. So they should understand the nationalistic tendencies of some Americans better then most people I would think.

blaZ
Monday, May 17, 2004

"So they should understand the nationalistic tendencies of some Americans better then most people I would think."

Most American nationalistic tendencies are superficial at most, and only relate to direct personal self-interest (i.e. the guy assembling cars is against imported cars, and the shoe factory worker is against foreign shoe companies). I think you'll find this superficial national self-interest in any company. Let's remember that the US is the largest importer in the world, so you can't really consider it a protectionist country.

Dennis Forbes
Monday, May 17, 2004

>As you just have to look how some Americans
>reacted when Japanese cars started to sell well
>in the US.

How would other cultures react to the same
stimulus?

son of parnas
Monday, May 17, 2004

Protectionism is quite common throughout the world.
And often, when you do happen to see American brands in those countries, they often were produced locally using local workers.  Maybe this is why the US has such an enormous trade deficit with most of the world. 

Troy McClure
Monday, May 17, 2004

I laugh at India's misfortune because of their ignorance of World History, that when economic "growth" only benefits a small elite group, the other billion people still living in poverty and filth will eventually revolt.

I guess now they know!

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

From the looks of it it seems like the Indians outsourced their head of state job to an Italian!

Looks like they did not get the memo that communism is dead.

Good news for us Americans now that the Indian companies will be taxed to death!

Code Monkey
Monday, May 17, 2004

"Let's remember that the US is the largest importer in the world"

The U.S. intentionally props up the rest of the world. If we put tarrifs on imports like you put on ours (like the U.K.'s 28%, for example), you'd sell nothing over here and your economies would collapse.

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

It seems that both in economics and war,  the US is held to a higher standard than anywhere else. 

Troy McClure
Monday, May 17, 2004

"The U.S. intentionally props up the rest of the world"

Well let's not take it too far.

The US buys a lot of world goods because it makes Americans richer -- richer with big screen TVs and great shoes and plastic gidgets and shower curtains and inexpensive computers, etc. This is purely selfish consumption (and I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with that), not some sort of benevolent act.

Having said that, the US has maintained a trade gap importing much more than she exports for years, and from a fundamental perspective this doesn't make sense -- normally a country's currency takes a beating (which then makes foreign goods more expensive, which reduces imports, which equalizes the gap...self correcting). Well I suppose it finally caught up.

Dennis Forbes
Monday, May 17, 2004

John Q.

History has shown that the only chance (not guarantee) of lifting those billion people out of poverty lies in in free markets and free trade.  This is why a return (by no means certain BTW) to protectionism and socialism by the new government would be of such concern.

As for our trade deficit, it is the result of our current account deficit which is the result of a combination of our willingness to borrow to buy crap, and other nations' interest in lending us dough.  Note:  recently the US government was running a surplus for a few years but the current account deficit remained near record highs due to increased private sector borrowing.  We just like to borrow money!

name withheld out of cowardice
Monday, May 17, 2004

"This is purely selfish consumption"

It's selfish on the micro level, but on the macro level it's a purely benevolent act when U.S. leaders tell third-world countries we will not complain if they put 100% tarrifs on our goods, and we will ensure 0% taxes on their goods, to help encourage their economy.

But someday the U.S. will get tired of this, and all these developing countries who can't get their act together will be on their own.

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

Whoa! A stock market crash and a whole nation is about to be written off?

Get real! This was expected and bound to happen. A bad thing, no doubt. But we are all greedy enough to make sure "Market Capitlisation" (Never quite understood that. This much I know. It is *not* the _actual_ worth of a company, and that is all that matters in the long run) increases again.

I'll refrain from correcting certain -  oops! sorry! *commenting* on certain -  views expressed here! Once bitten, twice shy!

KayJay
Monday, May 17, 2004

"This is why a return (by no means certain BTW) to protectionism and socialism by the new government would be of such concern."

Exactly, and India should have known the billion people they left out of their growth plan would backfire. As other threads have pointed out, their society is too complex and still too ingrained with socialism at the village level to simply give a bunch of money and freedom to the eilte in the big cities and hope it trickles down. People will revolt out of anger and jealousy before that happens, as history has shown.

They need to kickstart things at all levels, like the former USSR had to go through fifteen years ago.

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

The US has a long history of protectionist tarriffs whenever a special interest lobby group cries to protect their way of life (steel, oranges, lumber, wheat, milk, beef, etc. etc. etc). As a Canadian I know this well as our country is constantly fighting against unfair tarriffs place on Canadian goods such as lumber (always with some supposed justification, though time and time again Canada wins in "trade court").

Of course in the end a country does nothing but hurt itself when it imposes tarriffs - competition is reduced and thus prices raised, so consumers are "poorer", and manufactured goods become less competitive on the world stage (for instance items made of steel in the US aren't competitive because everyone else has access to a much cheaper steel supply).

Dennis Forbes
Monday, May 17, 2004

So the poor people in india have a lot invested in stocrks? Losing their pensions are they?

Of course not - only the outrageously wealthy in india are invested in the stock market and they could do to have their exhuberance taken down a notch before their economy implodes from overspeculation. The 999 million indians who are impoverished are not affected by the indian stock market.

Dennis Atkins
Monday, May 17, 2004

"It's a capitalist market economy at its best, and the rising waters lift all boats"

Ah, Reagan's trickle down economic theory. Overall, real wages in the US went down under this theory as the gap between rich and poor reached new levels of separation and scores of layoffs and homelessness ensued.

I do not know whether the theory worked the same in India, it looks as if it did. During all this wealth, they could not even build infrastructure to bring water to drought addled agricultural areas where people were starving.

No wonder they are mad. I would have voted the same way.

Dennis Atkins
Monday, May 17, 2004

Hey, I recognize him from such posts as, "Macroeconomics, who needs it?" and "Isolationism: Your Friend and Mine" -- Greg Hurlman

hilarious ... I got it, Greg, even if nobody else did  :)

Zahid
Monday, May 17, 2004

"Ah, Reagan's trickle down economic theory."

Errr, no basic economics 101. Of course it always gets turned into some Republican/Democrat thing by the communistos.

"Overall, real wages in the US went down under this theory as the gap between rich and poor reached new levels of separation and scores of layoffs and homelessness ensued."

You are talking about tax breaks for the rich (which was Reagan's scheme) versus a country having an expanded GDP. These aren't even in the same galaxy of thought.

"During all this wealth, they could not even build infrastructure to bring water to drought addled agricultural areas where people were starving."

The funny thing about poverty is that it's relative -- 200 starving people and 0 wealthy people is acceptable, but 150 starving people and 50 well-to-dos is a travesty requiring every armchair social expert to proclaim the injustice. I don't buy it. In this specific case what I'm hearing is "some offshoring companies are doing well, but they didn't even manage to build the infrastructure to support a billion people overnight! Travesty! SHUT EM DOWN!".

Dennis Forbes
Monday, May 17, 2004

"hilarious ... I got it, Greg, even if nobody else did  :)"

I think everyone got it, but we chuckled politely and moved on, not needing to make everyone aware of our astounding comprehension.

.
Monday, May 17, 2004

"...and scores of layoffs and homelessness ensued."

Scores of layoffs???

That means that 60, 80 or maybe even, gasp, 100 people may have lost their jobs (in a nation of 300 million people).

The horror!

Jim Rankin
Monday, May 17, 2004

There's nothing wrong with McClure's comment at all. The stock market's in a tither because the greedy arseholes in India are going to have to stop screwing their fellow countrymen. That's all.

Congress will improve life for most Indians.

Real .
Monday, May 17, 2004

As far as I can tell the dip is caused by foreign investors getting jittery about the communists entering the government. There are also likely to be less fat pickings in the future since the government is going to reverse the policy of selling off profitable enterprises.

Stock markets always crash, but that doesn't have an immediate, or commensurate effect on the economy. If it did Americans would have seen a ferocious decline in living standards with the dotbomb  crash.

Congress started the economic llberalization that Vajpayee continued, so it is doubtful if we are going to see any significant change in the Indian economy. The overheating of the Chinese economy is much more of a problem.

Stephen Jones
Monday, May 17, 2004

"As a Canadian I know this well as our country is constantly fighting against unfair tarriffs place on Canadian goods"

Yet Canada slaps 40% tarriffs on U.S. goods ( http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americas/05/17/canada.pizza.reut/index.html )...

This is typical of the world, they want the U.S. to buy all their products, accept all their refugees, protect them with our military, steal all our technology, and then they bitch about the U.S. being too dominant.

Wait till we close our borders....suckers!

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

"Yet Canada slaps 40% tarriffs on U.S. goods"

That pretty much evens it, right? Billions of dollars of lumber, versus frozen pizzas. I'm just being facetious as nowhere did I say that Canada doesn't engage in protectionism.

"Wait till we close our borders....suckers!"

Yeah, that'll show us! You can crawl down into the basement, curl up into the fetal position, and shiver in the darkness. You'll show us good.

I've long realized that people like yourself are a small minority of the American population, but sadly you're the one that most people remember.

Dennis Forbes
Monday, May 17, 2004

This is most beat up my Asian portfolio has gotten in a long time.  INFY and WIT are getting hurt.  The indexes are all down.  This is the first time I haven't felt 100% confident on my bet on Asia. 

Although truthfully the Indian consulting stocks are overpriced.  Not as bad as say Akamai during the bubble, but they are probably 2 or more times overvalued, unless you assume continued unprecedented growth, but at some point that has to slow down.

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Monday, May 17, 2004

The outsourcing thing was always a dot bomb waiting to happen anyway. Let the stocks tank.


Monday, May 17, 2004

"I've long realized that people like yourself are a small minority of the American population"

And I long ago found that people who secretly want to emigrate to the U.S. are majority of the Canadian population!

John Q. Public
Monday, May 17, 2004

"It seems that both in economics and war,  the US is held to a higher standard than anywhere else."

That's funny. If someone doesn't have high standards for America, I don't want that person in my country.

[Disclosure -- I am American.]

Tayssir John Gabbour
Monday, May 17, 2004

"It seems that both in economics and war,  the US is held to a higher standard than anywhere else."

<g> as an american; personally Id be a lot happier if america showed serious signs of having _any_ standards in economics and war.

between invading foreign countries, torturing our prisoners, spending billions of dollars on new nuclear weapons and refusing to help out countries suffering from aids unless they swear off contraception we're giving ourselves a really new vision on the future.....

the new american dream: if we cant shut you up or blow you up, we'll breed you out..

a proud american patriot
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

"And I long ago found that people who secretly want to emigrate to the U.S. are majority of the Canadian population!"

Would that be all of our huddled mass Canadian refugees that we're sending over the border? Sorry about that, but some of the internment camps were getting a little restless so we had to let some run for it.

As a sidenote, the pizza thing is an interesting study in the nature of terriffs - to protect the McCain family (which has a large number of government friends) and arguable the jobs of those involved (a tiny cross section of Canadians), imported pizzas that are supposedly subsidized will be tarriffed (and thus will be 45% more expensive). As a Canadian consumer, how does this benefit me? So now instead of spending $8 on a frozen pizza, and having $4 left over to get a quick shoe shine thus supporting the local labour, I now have to spend $12 on a pizza. Bah.

Dennis Forbes
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

"As far as I can tell the dip is caused by foreign investors getting jittery about the communists entering the government."

Stephen, I find it very interesting that you have inside information into very private information regarding the indian stock market. What is your source of this information? Who is giving you the heads up that the relevant stock sales are all being made by foreigners? Would you kindly tell us which foreign countries are involved? The issue fascinates me.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

"imported pizzas that are supposedly subsidized will be tarriffed (and thus will be 45% more expensive)."

I tell you what, while you Canadians are getting fat on your fancy imported pizzas and your pisswater Molsen beers, we Americans will protect your a** like we've been doing for the past...oh...60 years.

And sometimes we'll even let your Royal Canadian Mounted French Army or whoever they are go to the world's 'hotspots', though far from the actual trouble, to make you feel like you're still relevant.

And all we'll ask in return is you send some of your Best and Brightest our way... like, oh, William Shatner.

Mmmmm-kay?

OH STOP IT, I'M A TROLL, YOU PEOPLE...

John Q. Public
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Sheesh John, just when I thought I'd finally found a friend you go and pull this on me.

Back to the woods it is for me.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

The concerns about 'communists' entering the government was in the newspapers.  Well, international newspapers, possibly US newspapers didn't consider it newsworthy enough.

As the Communist Party has now said they won't join the government its unlikely it will have any lasting effect.

As I said before this is a transitional effect between governments, there won't be a dead cat bounce but a boom in the Indian stock market over the next few months that may overheat.  This also happened when the BJP originally took over, and there were far more concerns internationally about aggressive Hinduist supremacists then.

Simon Lucy
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Oh, and just another thought.  Betting on the stock market isn't just for the wealthy in India, its for anyone that can scrape up the price of a ticket, which is a considerable number.

There a couple of ways young Indian males see of getting rich, one is becoming a Bollywood film star, the other is making a killing on the stock market.

Simon Lucy
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

> Wait till we close our borders....suckers!

Oh how we wish you would, and never came out again.


Tuesday, May 18, 2004

"OH STOP IT, I'M A TROLL, YOU PEOPLE..."

Well done.  You should offer trolling lessons.

Jim Rankin
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Well the Indian market was up huge today.  I should have added to my INFY and WIT positions. 

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Dear Dennis,
                    As Simon says no insider information, just what the papers were reporting. I don't really think the Indian Communists are too much to worry about. They have been in power in Bengal uninterruptedly since independence, and in Kerala for most of the time since 1947.

Stephen Jones
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

I don't think Stephen, or anybody, has to stretch much to think that yesterday's fall was due to foreign investors pulling money out of the Indian market based on the political situation.  I'd suspect Foreign investment makes up a huge percentage of the capitalization of the Indian market.  Does anyone have specific numbers on this?

Here's my take on it.  While everybody has been complaining about outsourcing, high oil prices, and soaring real estate, I've been doing something about it and investing in all three sectors this year.  Asia makes up a considerable portion of my personal portfolio, as I am still convinced this where the growth is going to come from in the next 10 years.  There will no doubts be ups and downs like the last couple days, but you've got to keep a long term out look.  I think 10 years is fair.

If you want a quick entry into the Asian markets buy EPP which is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) which tracks Asian indexes.  It is offered by Barclays, but you can buy it in any brokerage account.

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Thanks Stephen. Interesting the papers are reporting that its foreign investors behind the collapse. I guess now that there's been a rally they'll say the same foreign investors who lost it all in the sell off are now raking it in in the rally and the whole thing is a conspiracy by non-hindus and foreigners. I am assuming here that the papers can not possibly have a credible source of insider information in such matters and are merely engaging in race-baiting and nationalist conspiracy mongering in order to sell papers.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Hi Chris,

Now we know who those foreign investors were doing all the troublemaking!

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

The "papers" are the BBC and other non-tabloid, non-Indain sources Anyway the English language press in India is of a high standard.

The upswing will be people looking to make a quick buck because they reckon prices will go up. You often get this pattern for a week or two after an election.

Stephen Jones
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Hey, I'm just following the money.  Obviously, I personally can't effect markets, but enough hedge funds together certainly can. 

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

"Hey, I'm just following the money."

Chris, yes, I understand that that's what Hitler said when he was out buying Salad Cream.

Stephen, what does the BBC say their source of the info is? Please post a link to the BBC article if you have it. Thanks.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Hey I can't complain about my decision so far. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=EPP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=wit+infy

Empirical evidence from this board has shown that a lot of US companies have been doing business in India and Asia.  A trip to Walmart confirms this evidence. 

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

I have seen stuff from India at the Pier 1 Imports, but not at WalMart.

--

The BBC quotes "Analyst" Debashis Basu, who does not give the source of his inside information. One article later, hes opinion mutates into a known fact.

I find it quite interesting because it took several weeks of intensive intelligence gathering before the FBI discovered that interests connected to the House of Saud had done billions in put options on American and United airlines in the 48 hours before 9-11.

Apparently, this indian Analyst has much better ability to analyze data than the FBI did. We should hire him to work over here - no doubt he will got to the bottom of all this terrorist activity.

Stephen's links:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3719833.stm

Analysts say the market crashed after foreign institutional investors, who had invested some $10bn in the Indian stock markets over the past year, began to sell heavily.

"Their expectations from India were very high," market analyst Debashis Basu told BBC News Online.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3721203.stm

Foreign investors attracted by India's recent strong economic performance were the first to withdraw their cash, spooked by threats from one of the Congress party's leftwing partners to abolish the privatisations ministry.

Even before Monday's stock market crash, foreign funds had sold over $500m worth of Indian shares, roughly one eighth of the amount they had bought since the beginning of the year.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Thought I said India AND Asia...  EPP is an Asian index fund which includes India.

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Yes, you said India AND Asia. You didn't say 'Asia', you said "India AND Asia" and then stated that a visit to WalMart confirmed it. I then pointed out the obvious fact that there are few if any Indian made goods at WalMart.

Dennis Atkins
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Ok, you win.

A trip to walmart confirms that we are doing A LOT of business in Asia.

There, better?

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Yes, I am now satisfied. Practically everything is made in China and it's all shit. I'm hoping that someday we will again be able to buy stuff that lasts, but with the wages they pay those poor people I'm not surprised that quality control is not a big concern for them.

I have heard of the investment strategy where you buy products that you are familiar with and feel are good products -- this is how many housewives got rich investing in Ben and Jerry's and that hot donut copmany, forget its name, etc. What is the name of strategy you are following by which you invest in low quality commodity goods?

Dennis Atkins
Wednesday, May 19, 2004

That'd be the Peter Lynch style of investing.  It has bounds, as you should consider valuation. 

For instance the Krispy Kreme bubble is finally bursting. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KKD&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

I agree a lot of the stuff that is made in China is simply made in China because it is cheap.     

christopher baus (www.baus.net)
Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Thanks, Chris.

Dennis Atkins
Wednesday, May 19, 2004

From my past dealings with Indian consulting firms, the same can be said for India.  The only reason we use them is that they are cheap.

Anakin Vader
Wednesday, May 19, 2004

 
                                      Stock Market Astrology Part 15
 
                                    ( Copyright -  G Kumar  30/05/2004 )
              " Astrology is the Science that enlightens like a lamp in darkness "

 
We have defined the Bear Phase as that long primary downward movement, characterised by
secondary rallies. The primary trend can never be manipulated. Since the Sensex and the Nifty are moving towards a Bear Phase, we have to find out methods how to make money in a
falling market.
 
The Bear Phase is characterised by various economic ills. When we analyse India's horoscope,
we find that the Birthstar is Pushya and India is going through the dreaded Elarata Saturn phase. Saturn will move over to Cancer on July 22nd, signalling a worse phase. Jupiter will be moving over to Virgo in August, to the Third House from India's Lunar Ascendant. This is one of the worst phases in India's horoscope. The fractured political verdict points out to the dreaded Elarata Saturn phase operating.

We have said that Jupiter in the second was responsible for the rise of the Stock market. But
Jupiter will be moving over to Virgo in August and the effect of Jupiter's transit will be felt two
months before ( Dwimasau Gurau ). In other words, astrologically also, the Bear Phase has
started. With Jupiter, who created the economic boom and the 10.4 GDP  growth turning
adverse, we can only hope and pray for the stock market to redeem itself.
 
So far Jupiter in Leo had held Saturn in the 12th under check. Now with Jupiter badly posited
( 3rd transit of Jupiter is one of the worst transits ), India is exposed to the maleficence of
12th and Ist Saturn.
 
Economic and political factors pointing out to a falling market are many. A coalition Govern-
ment whose longevity is in doubt, the scrapping of the Disinvestment Ministry, no labour reforms,
no power privatisation, less IPOs and a slowing down of the economic reforms process. 
Even though the PM is known as the father of reforms, his hands are unfortunately tied. 
 
How to make money in a Bear Market
 
You have to don the garb of the Bear to make money in the market. " Be a Bull in a Bull Market and a Bear in a Bear Market " is the principle of the speculators.
 
On that Black Friday, I short sold GAIL at 163.40 in the morning and covered it in the afternoon
at 160. If I had short sold ONGC at 682 ( I decided against it at the last moment ), I could have
covered it at 660. That was a good opportunity missed. But I made money in GAIL. You have
to watch primary and secondary trends to achieve success.

Bear rallies are secondary reactions and they are natural. During a Bear Phase, the market may fall 500 points and then rally some 200 odd points. Remember on that First Black Friday, the market lost 330 points and on the next Black Monday, the market lost 842 points. It rallied 300 odd points. Rallies are natural. If you chart out a graph, you will find that resistance and support levels are falling. So one has to be very careful while short selling. One should not short sell during a rally but wait for the market to fall. If you play the Bear continously in a Bear market, you will find tha profit outweights loss. When the market loses 200 odd points, if you short sell in the morning, you get ample time to cover in the afternoon or evening.
 
During rallies, you can play the Bull, but this is very risky. You have to be sure it is a rally and
then suddenly sell when it goes up. If the market dips viciously, you will be caught.
 
In other words, you can make money in a Bear market if you play the Bear.
 
As India goes through the astrological, political and fiscal purgatory, it is time to review our
strategy. The adverse heavenly influences like Saturn in the Lunar First and Jupiter in the Lunar 3rd can bring destruction of position ( Sthithi Nasam ) & and various ills, economic and politic ( Nana Roga Shucham ). These celestial causes influence terrestrial affairs. Its terrestrial transcriptions are immediate. There was not a single IPO in May and forex reserves have gone down by 57 million. The Common Minimum Programme has been defined by stock market analysts as disappointing. The scrapping of the Disinvestment Ministry implies that PSU stocks will go down. If you check the prices of GAIL, ONGC, SAIL, NTPC, BHEL etc, you will find that they are going down slowly and steadily.
 
Stock market analysts point out that the UPA Government came to power on the pretext of
Secularism and this seems to be a hijack. Economic reforms will be slowed down, there wont
be any power privatisation, no labour reforms and there will be more populist measures, which can only mean that the deficit and the foreign debt will go up. There is a danger that forex reserves may come down. 
 
Trend identification is not difficult and this is how Dow Jones analyses trends.
"Successive rallies penetrating preceding high points with ensuing declines terminating above preceding low points offer a bullish indication. Conversely, failure of rallies to penetrate previous high points with ensuing declines carrying below former low points is bearish. Inferences so drawn are useful in appraising secondary reactions and are of major importance in forecasting the resumption, continuation or change of the primary trend. A rally or a decline is defined as one or more daily movements resulting in a net reversal of direction exceeding three percent of the prices of either average. Such movements have but little authority unless confirmed in direction by both averages, but the confirmation need not occur on the same day. "  ( The ABC of Stock Speculation ).

We are getting falling resistance and support levels indicating that the Bear Phase has started. Our aim should be to use this knowledge to become successful in the stock market. If we play the Bear in the PSUs like ONGC, BHEL, GAIL, SAIL etc, we can be successful. The market may decline furthur in the long run.

Politically, this fractured verdict can only harm the nation. Mr Bardhan of the CPI pointed out that only 4% ( 40 million ) of the population indulge in the stock market. The rest 96 % form what he termed the proletariat ( the working class, the labourers, the fishermen, fisherwomen etc ). He is worried about the rest 96% .Not only is Mr Bardhan worried; the stock market investor population is also worried !


Forecast  by G Kumar, astrologer, writer and programmer  of www.astrologiavedica.com, www.eastrovedica.com & www.astrognosis.com . He has 15 years research experience in Stock Market Astrology and other branches of Astrology. . Recently he was awarded a Certificate by the Planetary Gemologists Association ( www.p-g-a.org ) as a Planetary Gem Advisor. He has 15 years psychic research experience in the esoteric arts. To subscribe to his Free ezine, the Z Files, click here. http://www.astrologiavedica.com/subscribe/SpawnedMailer.asp He is contactable at info@eastrovedica.com  Address of his physical shop is Zodiac Computers, 3/528 Tkss Bldgs, East Nada, Guruvayur Kerala, India 680101. Office Phone +91 0487-2552851. Home Phone +91 0487-2422060



 
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G Kumar
Saturday, June 19, 2004

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