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Stock Market related Blogs, sites, newsgroups

I am looking into investing in Stocks. I am a newbie in this field. Are there any blogs,sites, newsgroups, which I can read regularly to keep up with the latest information on Stocks, IPOs etc? Does anybody have any recommendations? Thanks in advance.

Anon
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

I highly recommend checking out the
www.fool.com

They have great free resources for new investors.

There is a lot of superstition about the stockmarket.  Some of it is little better than reading tea leaves.

Some folks like to talk about pricing momentum and the "shape" of the chart. I think that's bull#%it, but that' my opnion.

MY belief is that you can NOT predict stock *price*. Its just too chaotic.  However, you can predict *company* performance, with reasonable certainty. I.e., if a company has done well in the past they are likely to do well in the future, all else being equal.  But if the stock price has been rising, that does NOT mean it will continue to rise. In fact, all else being equal, it will likely flatten or go down.

Stock prices *tend* to follow earnings performance.

The trick is learning the smallest number of metrics (earnings, return on equity, etc.) it takes to predict company performance.

RESOURCES
www.fool.com
www.smartmoney.com
  - Smart Money magazine is also great.

Good luck.  Glad to hear you're not counting on social security, which CNN reported will run out in about 2018.

The real Entrepreneur
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

>>  Glad to hear you're not counting on social security, which CNN reported will run out in about 2018

But then, when the stock market crashes, pension funds don't do too well either :-)

Fred
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

What makes you think the stock market will crash?

(Ironically, it's the defined benefits pension plans that are going to be a HUGE drag on company profits. So much so that Paul Sturm at SmartMoney.com actually includes a figure for pention liability).


BTW, that's a huge advantage for us new, nimble companies: no pension liabilities (expept mine, of course :-)

The real Entrepreneur
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

SS will not run out 2018. They will raise taxes and delay retirement age to prevent it. They might even do something sensible and means test the benefits.

(Yes I know it's supposed to be a retirement fund, but it's not, so get over it)

pdq
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

I've always believed SS was a big Ponzi scheme, personally.

Aaron F Stanton
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

I think "Happy Days" was a big Fonzi scheme.

Mike
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

The market will be interesting around 2015 or so when the baby boomers turn 70.5 and have to start taking minumum withdrawls from their 401k's. 

Supply will likely dwarf demand at that point.

Mike
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Krugman on social security:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/02/opinion/02KRUG.html?ex=1393563600&en=f70ca455a31dd83d&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND

Teaser:
"Although the rest of the government is running huge deficits — and never did run much of a surplus — the Social Security system is currently taking in much more money than it spends. Thanks to those surpluses, the program is fully financed at least through 2042. "

JP
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Aaron,

It's nice to see I am not the only one who thinks SS is a Ponzi scheme.  Normally, people just look at me like I'm crazy when I tell them I think SS is a ponzi scheme.


Tuesday, March 02, 2004



thread has been hijacked......

anyway back to your point..

some good websites... are

www.cnnfn.com
www.moneycentral.com
www.cbsmarketwatch.com

sunny
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Yes, SS is a classic ponzi.  New suckers are enticed to finance the payouts for the early entrants who are getting out.  The sheer number of boomers will collapose this Ponzi, and the latest chink in the armor was Greenspan's recent statements.

bella
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Thanks for pointers all. I have been reading all these main sites. I am looking more in terms of blogs which have some tips or personal experience etc. Thanks again.

Anon
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

>> What makes you think the stock market will crash?

They do, and more and more often in the past few years. Regardless, by far, since the vast majority of shares are held for a very short period of time, the main reason for stock markets today has nothing to do with providing companies with funds as an alternative to banks or self-financing, and everything to do with just speculation.

BTW, I wonder why buyers at the stock market aren't required to hold on to their shares for X years, while this is usually made compulsory for savings plans if you want to avoid taxes. Mmm...

Fred
Tuesday, March 02, 2004

I would suppose that if all market buyers were forced to hold onto shares for a number of years, it would damage what is known as market efficiency. Stocks are only priced appropriately through the active process of buying and selling. In markets where there is little trading, the current price of the security has little bearing on the real value of the stock. (e.g. most OTC stocks which haven't made it to a big exchange)

Admittedly, stock prices can now violently swing on whims, but administering restrictions on the sale of stock probably won't do much good either. Finding the current worth of your portfolio would a lot more guesswork.

Joel Goodwin
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Before you start buying anything, read the bible of stock investing...

First Testament
Jesse Livermore's "Reminisces of a Stock Operator". Two main themes come out of the text.
1. You can't beat the market all the time
2. You can't ever make money from stock tips

This is one of the main reasons I stay away from stock picking/trading blogs. The one thing you could get from it is information such as which broker to use, good sources of financial data, good portfolio tracking software/sites etc, but if any off them purport to give you tips, run like hell.

Second Testament
Random Walk down Wall Street. Great book which is just spoilt at the end by the author trying to give an investment guide.  The first half of the book though is excellent.

Third Testament
Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds, by Charles MacKay. While it is not only about investing, it does warn you about the perils of group think and following fashions especially in investments. (Yet another reason to stay away from the blogs)

Tapiwa
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Just a question: Why do you want to invest in individual stocks? It can be much simpler and less expensive to invest in mutual funds. If you pick the right ones you will also be much more diversified. There are many funds available that charge what I consider a low fee (.10% to .30% pa). Or, if you don't want the restrictions that mutual funds entail, you can buy exchange traded funds, which allow you to trade intra-day. Note: IMO, you need to be trading larger chunks (~$20,000) for ETFs to be cost effective.

The only advice I ever give people is to diversify their portfolio. No matter how well you think you know a company, there is a large amount of risk to holding a 3 stock portfolio...

Rob VH
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Thanks Tapiwa.
Rob, I am trying to make some quick bucks rather than long term investments :)

Anon
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Anon, The Mighty Joel Spolsky himself recommends A Random Walk Down Wall Street which spends most of the book trying to dissuade one from trying to make quick bucks... it's a game in which only the brokers win.

Still if you're set on gambling, make sure it's not your life savings!

Joel Goodwin
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Anon: Best of luck to you. If you're really after quick bucks, may I suggest playing the futures markets? I mean, get some leverage; play with the track's money, as they say.  ;-)

The guy I work for has been in the business for about 40 years. He has this placard on the wall of his office that simply says, "Wall Street Ain't Sunday School".

Rob VH
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

If it's quick buck you want and you live in the UK, go for spread betting.

Leverage means you amplify your winning (and losses)!. Plus, any profits you make are tax free.

Tapiwa
Wednesday, March 03, 2004

I have been working on a blog for the past year that reviews stocks making nice gains in the market.  I then review some basic easily accessible fundamentals like revenue growth, earnings growth and consistency, free cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation.  Would love to have some others visit and comment/contribute!

http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstocks/

Robert Freedland
Friday, March 26, 2004

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