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The Coming Job Boom

According to a recent article in Business 2.0, "The Coming Job Boom," there will be a (projected) gap in skilled workers of 14 million by 2020.

Major points:
- Baby Boomer constitute 60% of the "prime age workforce.
- In the next 2 decades the Baby Boom generation will retire.
- As Boomers retire, the workforce will stop growing.
- Average worker's education will flatline.
- Labor Department is predicting average 15% growth for all occupations (double digit growth in tech/medical sectors).

Reactions?

Russell Thackston
Thursday, August 21, 2003

less baby boomers *can* retire now that their stocks are in the dumps.  Also, I think the fact that people are generally healthier and living longer will keep them working longer then they used to.

vince
Thursday, August 21, 2003

Does it factor in our tendency as programmers to eliminate other people's jobs?  (=

Sam Livingston-Gray
Thursday, August 21, 2003

Reaction?  Yes, all projected studies are bullshit.  If the authors were such talented prognosticators, they'd be retired on an island someewhere, not writing silly articles in a cubicle..

Bella Toughlove (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Blaster Worm)
Friday, August 22, 2003

> In the next 2 decades the Baby Boom generation will retire.

In the next 2 decades everyone who is currently age 0-20 will be added to the workforce.

Bella Toughlove (Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Blaster Worm)
Friday, August 22, 2003

Bella,

I agree, but it should be noted that there are a lot less 0-20 year olds than baby boomers.

So the numbers should pan out once you old farts retire. :)

Marc
Friday, August 22, 2003

Articles predicting shortages of "skilled workers" usually have an agenda.


Friday, August 22, 2003

"an agenda."

Wow. You sure convinced me. We better stop paying attention to articles like this, because of their secret agenda.

John Rosenberg
Friday, August 22, 2003

Pre-bust there was a prediction that we would bust in 2008 and that that bust would last 15 years. This bust would be caused by the end to the current baby boom.

The current recession is a different animal.

Regardless of what happens with the macro-economic situation two things are going to happen over the next five years: mass market adoption of the internet, which is ten times bigger than the former boom, but all that growth will accrue to the cash cows, so it won't feel like a boom; web services is going to commoditize software, so IT will bust again. If we find jobs now, it's only temporary. It might be possible that web services have switching costs, but I don't see them.

With all the jobs going overseas, we can either become executives or expect to drown. Bleak, but I'm always bleak, so discount some of that.

The tax code prohibits IT workers from forming personal corporations. Everyone else can do that. Pick your spot in the value chain, form a corporation around that and look for clients, not jobs and you will have become an executive.

David Locke
Friday, August 22, 2003

"The tax code prohibits IT workers from forming personal corporations"

I'm presuming you're talking about the US, since you mention jobs going overseas, but

a) does IT workers include programmers?
b) is a 'personal corporation' any different than a normal corporation, or is it just a corporation with only one person in it

In Canada we're allowed to do this (form a single-person corporation as a programmer) - gives us a nice change from paying 40% taxes since you can claim expenses and brings us closer to the nice low tax rates you guys have in the US :)

jedidjab79
Friday, August 22, 2003

"it should be noted that there are a lot less 0-20 year olds than baby boomers"

That is the first I hear of the world population diminishing. AFAIK we are still in the midst of a massive population explosion.

Just me (Sir to you)
Friday, August 22, 2003

Just Me,

While the world population grows, the populations of Western Europe and america are shrinking.

Its been called the demographic timebomb. 

Ged Byrne
Friday, August 22, 2003

>>The tax code prohibits IT workers from forming personal corporations. <<

What does this mean? I know many IT people with corporations in the US.

Tom Vu
Friday, August 22, 2003

In addition to the stagnant or shrinking populations of some European countries, the US birth rate is low enough that it would also be shrinking if it wasn't for immigration.

T. Norman
Friday, August 22, 2003

The reasoning which I tried to counter with the argument was the one where one assumed that adding every youngster to the available workforce would be no big deal since there where more baby boomers than youngsters.
This ignores the full globalisation of the (especially IT) workforce.
If the rest of the world is irrelevant for job market demographics, then why all the whining here about overseas outsourcing, H1B's offshoring, near-shoring, ...?

Just me (Sir to you)
Friday, August 22, 2003

Jesuz H!  It was only 3 and a bit years ago these same morons were saying there will be a shortage of 100 billion programmers by 2003.  Are peoples memories really that short?

ffs
Friday, August 22, 2003

The big problem is that all of these off shore employees aren't paying into the Baby Boomers pension schemes.

Lots of people drawing out, not so many paying in.  So what happened to all the money they payed in when they were working?

Ged Byrne
Friday, August 22, 2003

I can't read the article, since there's no link, but does 'skilled workers' only refer to programmers/ IT guys?

If you want good money now and in the future become a boilermaker. A stonemason/bricklayer. A plumber. You would not believe the projected shortages for these skilled occupations.

Spam
Friday, August 22, 2003

Ged - google on "Ponzi Scheme"

Philo

Philo
Friday, August 22, 2003

" While the world population grows, the populations of Western Europe and america are shrinking."

And Japan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/24/international/asia/24JAPA.html?ex=1061697600&en=c6e71bc6e7ceeb4a&ei=5070

Jim Rankin
Friday, August 22, 2003

Also, I've posted to the "Decline and Fall (Seriously)" thread tying the idea of negative Western population growth with declining Western power and influence.  I think these two topics are closely related.

Jim Rankin
Friday, August 22, 2003

Of course there's an agenda to that article, and it's not secret. Managers try to foster such myths so they get a larger quantity of job applicants, i.e. salaries decline.

Johnny Bravo
Friday, August 22, 2003

Yeah right, and it's all co-ordinated by the CIA.

Realist
Sunday, August 24, 2003

"Worker shortage" scams have been around for at least a century, realist and others. I suppose it could even go back to slavery days.

Employer groups at various times have argued there were looming shortages of agricultural workers, engineers, scientists and whatever else they could get away with. A few years after such campaigns, you find members of those occupations driving taxis or collecting unemployment benefits.

Realist, there's no need to evoke the CIA if you're seeking to mock claims of an agenda. The truth is harder than that. The truth is that the ITAA does actually have its own immigration committee and does have very expensive agenda-setting lobbyists.

The joke's on you.


Sunday, August 24, 2003

Most of you guys obviously didn't even read the report...you might want to try that before commenting.

LB
Tuesday, June 08, 2004

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