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2002: Economy; Jobs - any predictions?

Does anyone know where this is going?

How long after the economy improves(when will the economy improve?) will companies start recruting?

This is more with respect to new grads, but I guess would apply to other people as well!

Prakash S
Tuesday, January 01, 2002

I am not an economist, but here is how I understand the situation.

Warren Buffet predicted that the recession would last 8 years since the time it started.  This makes sense if the boom-bust cycle still exists.

Economists are fond of saying that things will pick up soon.  This is hard to believe, mainly since they are biased -- their pronouncements are a bit self-fulfilling, and they know it. 

Some large companies were able to see this recession coming, especially if they really focussed on efficiency.  I believe Dell did.  So maybe watching their actions serves as a reasonable indicator of Things to Come for say... 3 - 9 months?  Companies act slowly in the face of gradual downturns, because you can't just go around firing people slowly and killing morale, so 3 - 9 months may be a reasonable timeframe.

Fortunately, recessions are all just relative in badness.  The basics haven't changed, just how easy it is to look like you know what you're doing.  As always, know what you're doing.  Know what a business is, and guess what that may entail.  If you're a grad, learn things that make you better than normal corporate programmers, and be able to implement them.

Roger Hobson
Tuesday, January 01, 2002

I find it hard to believe that Warren Buffet said eight years.  Was it eight months?  Either way the recession should be over this spring.  Generally speaking the stock market rises about 6 months before the economy recovers.  Hiring usually lags the recovery  by several months so figure the job market in general should be good late 2002.  That's the general job market though.  I have a feeling technical hiring should be increasing this spring and certainly this summer.  Do not expect a return to the hiring pace, and relative salaries, of two years ago- that was a side effect of a speculative bubble and is unlikely to be repeated until the next generation of suckers reaches stock buying age.

Erik Lickerman
Friday, January 04, 2002

No, unfortunately he said Eight:
[ http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:UgsKAu3zEqsC:www.guardian.co.uk/recession/story/0,7369,549664,00.html+warren+buffett+recession+eight+years&hl=en&start=2 ]

But analyzing his perspective, he could also be biased.  After all, he must assume things are pessimistic, and stick with the Fundamentals of controlling interest, long-term investment.  In fact I think he thrives on recession.

Sammy
Friday, January 04, 2002

Well, the end of the world is pretty soon.

So I can no longer give a toss about what will be the next big thing or the job market for 2009 :-)

God Bless!

Nostracarlus - Retired Programmer
Friday, January 11, 2002

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